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Prediction markets elicit and aggregate beliefs by paying agents based on how close their predictions are to a verifiable future outcome.
Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability
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Rational decisions
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Agreeing to disagree
Aumann, R. J. (1976) · 1976
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We can’t disagree forever
Geanakoplos, J. D. and Polemarchakis, H. M. (1982) · 1982
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Information, trade and common knowledge
Milgrom, P. and Stokey, N. (1982) · 1982
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Decision markets
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Informational size and incentive compatibility
McLean, R. and Postlewaite, A. (2002) · 2002
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Combinatorial information market design
Hanson, R. (2003) · 2003
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A bayesian truth serum for subjective data
Prelec, D. (2004) · 2004
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Labeling images with a computer game
Von Ahn, L. and Dabbish, L. (2004) · 2004
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The complexity of agreement
Aaronson, S. (2005) · 2005
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Eliciting informative feedback: The peer-prediction method
Miller, N., Resnick, P., and Zeckhauser, R. (2005) · 2005
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Computational aspects of prediction markets
Pennock, D. M. and Sami, R. (2007) · 2007
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Use of prediction markets to forecast infectious disease activity
Polgreen, P. M., Nelson, F. D., Neumann, G. R., and Weinstein, R. A. (2007) · 2007
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Results from a dozen years of election futures markets research
Berg, J., Forsythe, R., Nelson, F., and Rietz, T. (2008) · 2008
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Information aggregation in dynamic markets with strategic traders
Ostrovsky, M. (2009) · 2009
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Gaming prediction markets: Equilibrium strategies with a market maker
Chen, Y., Dimitrov, S., Sami, R., Reeves, D. M., Pennock, D. M., Hanson, R. D., Fortnow, L., and Gonen, R. (2010) · 2010
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Decision rules and decision markets
Othman, A. and Sandholm, T. (2010) · 2010
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Decision markets with good incentives
Chen, Y., Kash, I., Ruberry, M., and Shnayder, V. (2011) · 2011
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Information elicitation for decision making
Chen, Y. and Kash, I. A. (2011) · 2011
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A utility framework for bounded-loss market makers
Chen, Y. and Pennock, D. M. (2012) · 2012
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What you jointly know determines how you act: Strategic interactions in prediction markets
Gao, X. A., Zhang, J., and Chen, Y. (2013) · 2013
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A robust bayesian truth serum for non-binary signals
Radanovic, G. and Faltings, B. (2013) · 2013
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Dwelling on the negative: Incentivizing effort in peer prediction
Witkowski, J., Bachrach, Y., Key, P., and Parkes, D. (2013) · 2013
Crowdsourced outcome determination in prediction markets
Freeman, R., Lahaie, S., and Pennock, D. (2017) · 2017
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Learning in social networks
Golub, B. and Sadler, E. (2017) · 2017
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Sequential peer prediction: Learning to elicit effort using posted prices
Liu, Y. and Chen, Y. (2017) · 2017
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An information theoretic framework for designing information elicitation mechanisms that reward truth-telling
Kong, Y. and Schoenebeck, G. (2019) · 2019
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Peer prediction with heterogeneous users
Agarwal, A., Mandal, D., Parkes, D. C., and Shah, N. (2020) · 2020
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The effectiveness of peer prediction in long-term forecasting
Debmalya, M., Goran, R., and David, P. (2020) · 2020
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Learning the prior in minimal peer prediction
Witkowski, J. and Parkes, D. C. (2013) · 2013
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Eliciting predictions and recommendations for decision making
Chen, Y., Kash, I. A., Ruberry, M., and Shnayder, V. (2014) · 2014
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Trick or treat: putting peer prediction to the test
Gao, X. A., Mao, A., Chen, Y., and Adams, R. P. (2014) · 2014
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Output agreement mechanisms and common knowledge
Waggoner, B. and Chen, Y. (2014) · 2014
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Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research
Dreber, A., Pfeiffer, T., Almenberg, J., Isaksson, S., Wilson, B., Chen, Y., Nosek, B. A., and Johannesson, M. (2015) · 2015
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Elicitation for aggregation
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Surrogate scoring rules
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Two strongly truthful mechanisms for three heterogeneous agents answering one question
Schoenebeck, G. and Yu, F.-Y. (2020) · 2020
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Agreement implies accuracy for substitutable signals
Frongillo, R. M., Neyman, E., and Waggoner, B. (2021) · 2021
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Truthful information elicitation from hybrid crowds
Han, Q., Ruan, S., Kong, Y., Liu, A., Mohsin, F., and Xia, L. (2021) · 2021
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Reciprocal scoring: A method for forecasting unanswerable questions
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Information elicitation from rowdy crowds
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Auctions and peer prediction for academic peer review
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Peer prediction for learning agents
Feng, S., Yu, F.-Y., and Chen, Y. (2022) · 2022
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False consensus, information theory, and prediction markets
Kong, Y. and Schoenebeck, G. (2022) · 2022
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The probability conflation: A reply
Taleb, N. N., Richman, R., Carreira, M., and Sharpe, J. (2023) · 2023
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Information elicitation mechanisms for statistical estimation
Kong, Y., Schoenebeck, G., Tao, B., and Yu, F.-Y. (2020) · 2095
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