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2023

The Probability Conflation: A Reply

Taleb, Nassim Nicholas, Richman, Ron, Carreira, Marcos et al.

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Understand

We respond to Tetlock et al.

(2022) showing 1) how expert judgment fails to reflect tail risk, 2) the lack of compatibility between forecasting tournaments and tail risk assessment methods (such as extreme value theory).
More importantly, we communicate a new result showing a greater gap between the properties of tail expectation and those of the corresponding probability.

The Probability Conflation: A Reply · Around

Built on

J. Bhagwati, “Wheel of fortune,”
1987
Earlier work this paper cites.
N. N. Taleb,
Original
2020
Earlier work this paper cites.

Similar

N. N. Taleb, “On the statistical differences between binary forecasts and real world payoffs,”
2021
Cited alongside, same era.
P. E. Tetlock, Y. Lu, and B. A. Mellers, “False dichotomy alert: Improving subjective-probability estimates vs. raising awareness of systemic risk,”
2022
Cited alongside, same era.

Then

N. N. Taleb, Y. Bar-Yam, and P. Cirillo, “On single point forecasts for fat-tailed variables,”
2022
Later among the works it cites.

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