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Scientific advice to the UK government throughout the COVID-19 pandemic has been informed by ensembles of epidemiological models provided by members of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza group on Modelling (SPI-M).
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Bayesian model averaging for linear regression models
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Bayesian model averaging: a tutorial
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Bayesian calibration of computer models (with discussion)
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Computing electricity spot price prediction intervals using quantile regression and forecast averaging
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Using stacking to average Bayesian predictive distributions (with discussion)
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SPI-M-O: COVID-19 short-term forecasting: Academic summary positions, 2 April 2020
Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies · 2020
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C. McDonald and L. A. Thorsrud · 2011
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Turning Bayesian model averaging into Bayesian model combination
K. Monteith, J. L. Carroll, K. Seppi, and T. Martinez · 2011
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Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble model output statistics and minimum CRPS estimation
T. Gneiting, A. E. Raftery, A. H. Westveld III, and T. Goldman
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Combining forecasts (s0123)
Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies
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Combining model forecast intervals (s0124)
Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies
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Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble model output statistics and minimum crps estimation
Tilmann Gneiting, Adrian E Raftery, Anton H Westveld III, and Tom Goldman
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T. Maishman, S. Schaap, D. S. Silk, S. J. Nevitt, D. C. Woods, and V. E. Bowman · 2021
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Short-term forecasts to inform the response to the covid-19 epidemic in the uk
S. Funk et al · 2021
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