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We analyze the spread of COVID-19 by considering the transmission of the disease among individuals both within and between regions.
On the definition and the computation of the basic reproduction ratio R0 in models for infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations
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Epidemics with two levels of mixing
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2018 traffic data for U.S. airlines and foreign airlines U.S. flights
U.S. Department of Transportation · 2003
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Multiscale, resurgent epidemics in a hierarchical metapopulation model
Watts, D. J., Muhamad, R., Medina, D. C. & Dodds, P. S · 2005
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Long-range interactions and evolutionary stability in a predator-prey system
Rauch, E. M. & Bar-Yam, Y · 2006
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Empirical evidence for the effect of airline travel on inter-regional influenza spread in the United States
Brownstein, J. S., Wolfe, C. J. & Mandl, K. D · 2006
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Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States
Germann, T. C., Kadau, K., Longini, I. M. & Macken, C. A · 2006
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Reaction–diffusion processes and metapopulation models in heterogeneous networks
Colizza, V., Pastor-Satorras, R. & Vespignani, A · 2007
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Statistical Physics of Fields (Cambridge University Press, 2007)
Kardar, M · 2007
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Invasion threshold in heterogeneous metapopulation networks
Colizza, V. & Vespignani, A · 2007
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How generation intervals shape the relationship between growth rates and reproductive numbers
Wallinga, J. & Lipsitch, M · 2007
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Controlling pandemic flu: the value of international air travel restrictions
Epstein, J. M. et al · 2007
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Comparing large-scale computational approaches to epidemic modeling: agent-based versus structured metapopulation models
Ajelli, M. et al · 2010
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Human mobility networks, travel restrictions, and the global spread of 2009 H1N1 pandemic
Bajardi, P. et al · 2011
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Random and targeted interventions for epidemic control in metapopulation models
Tanaka, G., Urabe, C. & Aihara, K · 2014
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Assessing the impact of travel restrictions on international spread of the 2014 West African Ebola epidemic
Poletto, C. et al · 2014
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Seven challenges for metapopulation models of epidemics, including households models
Ball, F. et al · 2015
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From big data to important information
Bar-Yam, Y · 2016
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How much data do you need? An operational, pre-asymptotic metric for fat-tailedness
Taleb, N. N · 2019
The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak
Chinazzi, M. et al · 2020
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The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China
Kraemer, M. U. G. et al · 2020
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Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study
Wu, J. T., Leung, K. & Leung, G. M · 2020
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Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China of novel coronavirus–infected pneumonia
Li, Q. et al · 2020
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COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak
Worldometer · 2020
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Serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections
Nishiura, H., Linton, N. M. & Akhmetzhanov, A. R · 2020
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Novel coronavirus – China
World Health Organization · 2020
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Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): situation report, 72
World Health Organization · 2020
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An introduction to complex systems science and its applications
Siegenfeld, A. F. & Bar-Yam, Y · 2020
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Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand
Ferguson, N. M. et al · 2020
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Characteristics of and important lessons from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in China: Summary of a report of 72314 cases from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Wu, Z. & McGoogan, J. M · 2020
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COVID-19 integrated surveillance: key national data
Istituto Superiore di Sanita · 2020
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The serial interval of COVID-19 from publicly reported confirmed cases
Du, Z. et al · 2020
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Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak
Zhao, S. et al · 2020
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Estimation of the time-varying reproduction number of COVID-19 outbreak in China
You, C. et al · 2020
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Transmission interval estimates suggest pre-symptomatic spread of COVID-19
Tindale, L. et al · 2020
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Estimating the generation interval for COVID-19 based on symptom onset data
Ganyani, T. et al · 2020
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The reproductive number of COVID-19 is higher compared to SARS coronavirus
Liu, Y., Gayle, A. A., Wilder-Smith, A. & Rocklöv, J · 2020
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