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In many complex, real-world situations, problem solving and decision making require effective reasoning about causation and uncertainty.
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Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
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Explanation in Bayesian Belief Networks
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Bayesian reasoning in an abductive mechanism for argument generation and analysis
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van der Gaag, L. C., Renooij, S., Witteman, C. L. M., Aleman, B. M. P., & Taal, B. G. (1999) · 1999
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Zukerman, I., McConachy, R., Korb, K. B., & Pickett, D. (1999) · 1999
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The “Jury Fallacy” and the use of Bayesian networks to present probabilistic legal arguments
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Causation, prediction, and search
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Causal learning mechanisms in very young children: Two-, three-, and four-year-olds infer causal relations from patterns of variation and covariation
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The inverse fallacy: An account of deviations from Bayes’s theorem and the additivity principle
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A teaching model exploiting cognitive conflict driven by a Bayesian network
Stacey, K., Sonenberg, E., Nicholson, A., Boneh, T., & Steinle, V. (2003) · 2003
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Bayesian informal logic and fallacy
Korb, K. B. (2004) · 2004
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Lagnado, D. A., & Sloman, S. (2004) · 2004
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Overconfidence in interval estimates
Soll, J., & Klayman, J. (2004) · 2004
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Argumentation in Bayesian belief networks
Vreeswijk, G. A. W. (2005) · 2005
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Rt delphi: An efficient, “round-less” almost real time delphi method
Gordon, T., & Pease, A. (2006) · 2006
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A Bayesian approach to informal argument fallacies
Hahn, U., & Oaksford, M. (2006) · 2006
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Time as a guide to cause
Lagnado, D. A., & Sloman, S. A. (2006) · 2006
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Errors in creative thought? Cognitive biases in a complex processing activity
Mumford, M. D., Blair, C., Dailey, L., Leritz, L. E., & Osburn, H. K. (2006) · 2006
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A Bayesian approach to the validation of agent-based models
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Sesen, M. B., Nicholson, A. E., Banares-Alcantara, R., Kadir, T., & Brady, M. (2013) · 2013
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The Bayesian boom: good thing or bad?
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Healy, P. J., & Moore, D. A. (2007) · 2007
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Intelligence Community Directive (ICD) 203, Analytic Standards
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Causal inferences in nonexperimental research
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Classical meets modern in the idea protocol for structured expert judgement
Hanea, A., McBride, M., Burgman, M., & Wintle, B. (2018) · 2018
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Analysing arguments using causal Bayesian networks
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The book of why: the new science of cause and effect
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Integrating dependent evidence: naïve reasoning in the face of complexity
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Does size matter? the effect of group size and opinion diversity on performance within delphi groups
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