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First attempts to model the dynamics of the Coronavirus outbreak 2020 · Around

2020

First attempts to model the dynamics of the Coronavirus outbreak 2020

Götz, Thomas

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Since the end of 2019 an outbreak of a new strain of coronavirus, called 2019--nCoV, is reported from China and later other parts of the world.

Since January 21, WHO reports daily data on confirmed cases and deaths from both China and other countries.
In this work we present some discrete and continuous models to discribe the disease dynamics in China and estimate the needed epidemiological parameters.
Good agreement with the current dynamics has be found for both a discrete transmission model and a slightly modified SIR-model.

Built on

WHO, Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) situation reports. www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports
2019
Earlier work this paper cites.

Similar

Leung, Gabriel; Wu, Joseph: Real-time nowcast and forecast on the extent of the Wuhan CoV outbreak, domestic and international spread , www.med.hku.hk/f/news/3549/7418/Wuhan-coronavirus-outbreak\underline{\␣}AN-UPDATE\underline{\␣}20200127.pdf
2020
Cited alongside, same era.
National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China. www.nhc.gov.cn/yjb/pzhgli/new\underline{\␣}list.shtml
Cited in the paper.

Then

Read, Jonathan M.; Bridgen, Jessica RE; Cummings, Derek AT; Ho, Antonia; Jewell, Chris P.: Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions , www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v2
Original
2020
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