A Time Delay Dynamical Model for Outbreak of 2019-nCoV and the Parameter Identification

Understand

In this paper, we propose a novel dynamical system with time delay to describe the outbreak of 2019-nCoV in China.

• One typical feature of this epidemic is that it can spread in latent period, which is therefore described by the time delay process in the differential equations.
• The accumulated numbers of classified populations are employed as variables, which is consistent with the official data and facilitates the parameter identification.
• The numerical methods for the prediction of outbreak of 2019-nCoV and parameter identification are provided, and the numerical results show that the novel dynamic system can well predict the outbreak trend so far.