Early Prediction of Satellite Collision Probability Using a Hybrid TCN-Transformer Model for a CDM-Based Conjunction Analysis Framework

Understand

The rapid expansion of operational satellites and orbital debris has increased the frequency of close approach events in low Earth orbit (LEO), creating a higher operational burden for satellite operators.

• This problem is especially critical for satellites using electric propulsion, where low-thrust maneuver capability imposes additional time constraints on collision avoidance planning.
• In current practice, Conjunction Data Messages (CDMs) provide relative state, covariance, miss distance, time of closest approach, and probability of collision (PoC) information for conjunction assessment.
• However, the nonlinear propagation of orbital uncertainties and the sensitivity of PoC to covariance evolution make the interpretation of sequential CDMs challenging.