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Recent advancements in data-driven weather forecasting models have delivered deterministic models that outperform the leading operational forecast systems based on traditional, physics-based models.
WeatherBench 2: A Benchmark for the Next Generation of Data-Driven Global Weather Models
Rasp, S., Hoyer, S., Merose, A., Langmore, I., Battaglia, P., Russell, T., Sanchez-Gonzalez, A., Yang, V., Carver, R., Agrawal, S., Chantry, M., Ben Bouallegue, Z., Dueben, P., Bromberg, C., Sisk, J., Barrington, L., Bell, A., and Sha, F · 1942
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Improving Data-Driven Global Weather Prediction Using Deep Convolutional Neural Networks on a Cubed Sphere
Weyn, J. A., Durran, D. R., and Caruana, R · 1942
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A Practical Probabilistic Benchmark for AI Weather Models
Brenowitz, N. D., Cohen, Y., Pathak, J., Mahesh, A., Bonev, B., Kurth, T., Durran, D. R., Harrington, P., and Pritchard, M. S · 1944
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Assimilating Observed Surface Pressure Into ML Weather Prediction Models
Slivinski, L. C., Whitaker, J. S., Frolov, S., Smith, T. A., and Agarwal, N · 1944
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Distortion Representation of Forecast Errors
Hoffman, R. N., Liu, Z., Louis, J.-F., and Grassoti, C · 1995
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Building your own wavelets at home
Sweldens, W. and Schröder, P · 2000
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A nonlinear dynamical perspective on model error: A proposal for non-local stochastic-dynamic parametrization in weather and climate prediction models
Palmer, T. N · 2001
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Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation
Gneiting, T. and Raftery, A. E · 2007
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Ensemble forecasting
Leutbecher, M. and Palmer, T. N · 2007
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The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS)
Knapp, K. R., Kruk, M. C., Levinson, D. H., Diamond, H. J., and Neumann, C. J · 2010
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Generalization of the Ignorance Score: Continuous Ranked Version and Its Decomposition
Tödter, J. and Ahrens, B · 2012
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Progress and challenges in forecast verification
Ebert, E., Wilson, L., Weigel, A., Mittermaier, M., Nurmi, P., Gill, P., Göber, M., Joslyn, S., Brown, B., Fowler, T., and Watkins, A · 2013
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Determining the effective resolution of advection schemes. Part I: Dispersion analysis
Kent, J., Whitehead, J. P., Jablonowski, C., and Rood, R. B · 2014
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Evaluation of Tropical Cyclones in the Canadian Global Modeling System: Sensitivity to Moist Process Parameterization
Zadra, A., McTaggart-Cowan, R., Vaillancourt, P. A., Roch, M., Bélair, S., and Leduc, A.-M · 2014
Cited alongside, same era.
Increasing the Skill of Probabilistic Forecasts: Understanding Performance Improvements from Model-Error Representations
Berner, J., Fossell, K. R., Ha, S.-Y., Hacker, J. P., and Snyder, C · 2015
Cited alongside, same era.
Decoupled Weight Decay Regularization, January 2019
Loshchilov, I. and Hutter, F · 2019
Cited alongside, same era.
The ERA5 global reanalysis
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N · 2020
Cited alongside, same era.
What if? Numerical weather prediction at the crossroads
Bauer, P · 2024
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Couairon, G., Singh, R., Charantonis, A., Lessig, C., and Monteleoni, C · 2024
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FengWu-GHR: Learning the Kilometer-scale Medium-range Global Weather Forecasting, January 2024
Han, T., Guo, S., Ling, F., Chen, K., Gong, J., Luo, J., Gu, J., Dai, K., Ouyang, W., and Bai, L · 2024
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Husain, S. Z., Separovic, L., Caron, J.-F., Aider, R., Buehner, M., Chamberland, S., Lapalme, E., McTaggart-Cowan, R., Subich, C., Vaillancourt, P., Yang, J., and Zadra, A · 2024
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Keisler, R · 2022
Cited alongside, same era.
Can We Integrate Spatial Verification Methods into Neural Network Loss Functions for Atmospheric Science?
Lagerquist, R. and Ebert-Uphoff, I · 2022
Cited alongside, same era.
Accurate medium-range global weather forecasting with 3D neural networks
Bi, K., Xie, L., Zhang, H., Chen, X., Gu, X., and Tian, Q · 2023
Cited alongside, same era.
Spherical Fourier Neural Operators: Learning Stable Dynamics on the Sphere
Bonev, B., Kurth, T., Hundt, C., Pathak, J., Baust, M., Kashinath, K., and Anandkumar, A · 2023
Cited alongside, same era.
FengWu: Pushing the Skillful Global Medium-range Weather Forecast beyond 10 Days Lead, April 2023
Chen, K., Han, T., Gong, J., Bai, L., Ling, F., Luo, J.-J., Chen, X., Ma, L., Zhang, T., Su, R., Ci, Y., Li, B., Yang, X., and Ouyang, W · 2023
Cited alongside, same era.
FourCastNet: Accelerating Global High-Resolution Weather Forecasting Using Adaptive Fourier Neural Operators
Kurth, T., Subramanian, S., Harrington, P., Pathak, J., Mardani, M., Hall, D., Miele, A., Kashinath, K., and Anandkumar, A · 2023
Cited alongside, same era.
Learning skillful medium-range global weather forecasting
Lam, R., Sanchez-Gonzalez, A., Willson, M., Wirnsberger, P., Fortunato, M., Alet, F., Ravuri, S., Ewalds, T., Eaton-Rosen, Z., Hu, W., Merose, A., Hoyer, S., Holland, G., Vinyals, O., Stott, J., Pritzel, A., Mohamed, S., and Battaglia, P · 2023
Cited alongside, same era.
GraphCast GitHub repository, July 2024
Lam, R., Sanchez-Gonzalez, A., Willson, M., Wirnsberger, P., Fortunato, M., Alet, F., Ravuri, S., Ewalds, T., Eaton-Rosen, Z., Hu, W., Merose, A., Hoyer, S., Holland, G., Vinyals, O., Stott, J., Pritzel, A., Mohamed, S., and Battaglia, P · 2023
Cited alongside, same era.
Kochkov, D., Yuval, J., Langmore, I., Norgaard, P., Smith, J., Mooers, G., Klöwer, M., Lottes, J., Rasp, S., Düben, P., Hatfield, S., Battaglia, P., Sanchez-Gonzalez, A., Willson, M., Brenner, M. P., and Hoyer, S · 2024
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Generative emulation of weather forecast ensembles with diffusion models
Li, L., Carver, R., Lopez-Gomez, I., Sha, F., and Anderson, J · 2024
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Mahesh, A., Collins, W., Bonev, B., Brenowitz, N., Cohen, Y., Elms, J., Harrington, P., Kashinath, K., Kurth, T., North, J., OBrien, T., Pritchard, M., Pruitt, D., Risser, M., Subramanian, S., and Willard, J · 2024
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GraphCast with GFS input, 2024
NOAA · 2024
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Subich, C · 2024
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End-to-end data-driven weather prediction
Allen, A., Markou, S., Tebbutt, W., Requeima, J., Bruinsma, W. P., Andersson, T. R., Herzog, M., Lane, N. D., Chantry, M., Hosking, J. S., and Turner, R. E · 2025
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Binned Spectral Power Loss for Improved Prediction of Chaotic Systems, February 2025
Chakraborty, D., Mohan, A. T., and Maulik, R · 2025
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Probabilistic weather forecasting with machine learning
Price, I., Sanchez-Gonzalez, A., Alet, F., Andersson, T. R., El-Kadi, A., Masters, D., Ewalds, T., Stott, J., Mohamed, S., Battaglia, P., Lam, R., and Willson, M · 2025
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GFS-Powered Machine Learning Weather Prediction: A Comparative Study on Training GraphCast with NOAA’s GDAS Data for Global Weather Forecasts, 2025
Sadeghi Tabas, S., Wang, J., Lei, W., Row, M., Zhang, Z., Zhu, L., Peng, J., and Carley, J. R · 2025
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