Can CDT rationalise the ex ante optimal policy via modified anthropics?

Understand

In Newcomb's problem, causal decision theory (CDT) recommends two-boxing and thus comes apart from evidential decision theory (EDT) and ex ante policy optimisation (which prescribe one-boxing).

• However, in Newcomb's problem, you should perhaps believe that with some probability you are in a simulation run by the predictor to determine whether to put a million dollars into the opaque box.
• If so, then causal decision theory might recommend one-boxing in order to cause the predictor to fill the opaque box.
• In this paper, we study generalisations of this approach.