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Weather forecasting has seen a shift in methods from numerical simulations to data-driven systems.
Exact numerical simulation of the ornstein-uhlenbeck process and its integral
Daniel T. Gillespie · 1996
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Strictly proper scoring rules, prediction, and estimation
Tilmann Gneiting and Adrian E. Raftery · 2007
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Ensemble forecasting
Martin Leutbecher and Tim N Palmer · 2008
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Ordinary Differential Equations
Jack K. Hale · 2009
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Understanding the difficulty of training deep feedforward neural networks
Xavier Glorot and Yoshua Bengio · 2010
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A connection between score matching and denoising autoencoders
Pascal Vincent · 2011
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Why should ensemble spread match the RMSE of the ensemble mean?
Vincent Fortin, Mabrouk Abaza, Francois Anctil, and Raphael Turcotte · 2014
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The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction
Peter Bauer, Alan Thorpe, and Gilbert Brunet · 2015
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Differential Equations with Applications and Historical Notes
George F. Simmons · 2016
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Lipschitz regularity of deep neural networks: analysis and efficient estimation
Aladin Virmaux and Kevin Scaman · 2018
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The ERA5 global reanalysis
Hans Hersbach, Bill Bell, Paul Berrisford, Shoji Hirahara, András Horányi, Joaquín Muñoz‐Sabater, Julien Nicolas, Carole Peubey, Raluca Radu, Dinand Schepers, Adrian Simmons, Cornel Soci, Saleh Abdalla, Xavier Abellan, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Peter Bechtold, Gionata Biavati, Jean Bidlot, Massimo Bonavita, Giovanna De Chiara, Per Dahlgren, Dick Dee, Michail Diamantakis, Rossana Dragani, Johannes Flemming, Richard Forbes, Manuel Fuentes, Alan Geer, Leo Haimberger, Sean Healy, Robin J. Hogan, Elías Hólm, Marta Janisková, Sarah Keeley, Patrick Laloyaux, Philippe Lopez, Cristina Lupu, Gabor Radnoti, Patricia De Rosnay, Iryna Rozum, Freja Vamborg, Sebastien Villaume, and Jean‐Noël Thépaut · 2020
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Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models
Jonathan Ho, Ajay Jain, and Pieter Abbeel · 2020
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WeatherBench: A benchmark dataset for data-driven weather forecasting
Stephan Rasp, Peter D. Dueben, Sebastian Scher, Jonathan A. Weyn, Soukayna Mouatadid, and Nils Thuerey · 2020
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Sliced score matching: A scalable approach to density and score estimation
Yang Song, Sahaj Garg, Jiaxin Shi, and Stefano Ermon · 2020
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Ensemble Methods for Neural Network‐Based Weather Forecasts
Sebastian Scher and Gabriele Messori · 2021
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Score-based generative modeling through stochastic differential equations
Yang Song, Jascha Sohl-Dickstein, Diederik P. Kingma, Abhishek Kumar, Stefano Ermon, and Ben Poole · 2021
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Sub‐seasonal forecasting with a large ensemble of deep‐learning weather prediction models
Jonathan A. Weyn, Dale R. Durran, Rich Caruana, and Nathaniel Cresswell‐Clay · 2021
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Elucidating the design space of diffusion-based generative models
Tero Karras, Miika Aittala, Timo Aila, and Samuli Laine · 2022
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Building normalizing flows with stochastic interpolants
Michael Samuel Albergo and Eric Vanden-Eijnden · 2023
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DiffESM: Conditional emulation of earth system models with diffusion models
Seth Bassetti, Brian Hutchinson, Claudia Tebaldi, and Ben Kravitz · 2023
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Accurate medium-range global weather forecasting with 3D neural networks
Neural general circulation models for weather and climate
Dmitrii Kochkov, Janni Yuval, Ian Langmore, Peter Norgaard, Jamie Smith, Griffin Mooers, Milan Klöwer, James Lottes, Stephan Rasp, Peter Düben, Sam Hatfield, Peter Battaglia, Alvaro Sanchez-Gonzalez, Matthew Willson, Michael P. Brenner, and Stephan Hoyer · 2024
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Generative emulation of weather forecast ensembles with diffusion models
Lizao Li, Robert Carver, Ignacio Lopez-Gomez, Fei Sha, and John Anderson · 2024
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Residual corrective diffusion modeling for km-scale atmospheric downscaling, 2024
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Kaifeng Bi, Lingxi Xie, Hengheng Zhang, Xin Chen, Xiaotao Gu, and Qi Tian · 2023
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SwinVRNN: A data-driven ensemble forecasting model via learned distribution perturbation
Yuan Hu, Lei Chen, Zhibin Wang, and Hao Li · 2023
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FourCastNet: Accelerating global high-resolution weather forecasting using adaptive fourier neural operators
Thorsten Kurth, Shashank Subramanian, Peter Harrington, Jaideep Pathak, Morteza Mardani, David Hall, Andrea Miele, Karthik Kashinath, and Anima Anandkumar · 2023
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Learning skillful medium-range global weather forecasting
Remi Lam, Alvaro Sanchez-Gonzalez, Matthew Willson, Peter Wirnsberger, Meire Fortunato, Ferran Alet, Suman Ravuri, Timo Ewalds, Zach Eaton-Rosen, Weihua Hu, Alexander Merose, Stephan Hoyer, George Holland, Oriol Vinyals, Jacklynn Stott, Alexander Pritzel, Shakir Mohamed, and Peter Battaglia · 2023
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PDE-Refiner: Achieving accurate long rollouts with neural pde solvers
Phillip Lippe, Bas Veeling, Paris Perdikaris, Richard Turner, and Johannes Brandstetter · 2023
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ClimaX: A foundation model for weather and climate
Tung Nguyen, Johannes Brandstetter, Ashish Kapoor, Jayesh K. Gupta, and Aditya Grover · 2023
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DYffusion: A dynamics-informed diffusion model for spatiotemporal forecasting
Salva Rühling Cachay, Bo Zhao, Hailey Joren, and Rose Yu · 2023
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Morteza Mardani, Noah Brenowitz, Yair Cohen, Jaideep Pathak, Chieh-Yu Chen, Cheng-Chin Liu, Arash Vahdat, Mohammad Amin Nabian, Tao Ge, Akshay Subramaniam, Karthik Kashinath, Jan Kautz, and Mike Pritchard · 2024
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Probabilistic weather forecasting with hierarchical graph neural networks
Joel Oskarsson, Tomas Landelius, Marc Peter Deisenroth, and Fredrik Lindsten · 2024
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Kilometer-scale convection allowing model emulation using generative diffusion modeling, 2024
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A survey on diffusion models for time series and spatio-temporal data, 2024
Yiyuan Yang, Ming Jin, Haomin Wen, Chaoli Zhang, Yuxuan Liang, Lintao Ma, Yi Wang, Chenghao Liu, Bin Yang, Zenglin Xu, Jiang Bian, Shirui Pan, and Qingsong Wen · 2024
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Diffusion-lam: Probabilistic limited area weather forecasting with diffusion
Erik Larsson, Joel Oskarsson, Tomas Landelius, and Fredrik Lindsten · 2025
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Scaling transformer neural networks for skillful and reliable medium-range weather forecasting
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Probabilistic weather forecasting with machine learning
Ilan Price, Alvaro Sanchez-Gonzalez, Ferran Alet, Tom R Andersson, Andrew El-Kadi, Dominic Masters, Timo Ewalds, Jacklynn Stott, Shakir Mohamed, Peter Battaglia, et al · 2025
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Probablistic emulation of a global climate model with spherical dyffusion
Salva Rühling Cachay, Brian Henn, Oliver Watt-Meyer, Christopher S Bretherton, and Rose Yu · 2025
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