Use Model Averaging instead of Model Selection in Pulsar Timing

Understand

Over the past decade and a half, adoption of Bayesian inference in pulsar timing analysis has led to increasingly sophisticated models.

• The recent announcement of evidence for a stochastic background of gravitational waves by various pulsar timing array projects highlighted Bayesian inference as a central tool for parameter estimation and model selection.
• Despite its success, Bayesian inference is occasionally misused in the pulsar timing community.
• A common workflow is that the data is analyzed in multiple steps: a first analysis of single pulsars individually, and a subsequent analysis of the whole array of pulsars.