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Language models (LMs) trained on web-scale datasets are largely successful due to their ability to memorize large amounts of training data, even if only present in a few examples.
Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability
G. W. Brier · 1950
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Wisdom of crowds: Forecasting using prediction markets
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Show your work: Scratchpads for intermediate computation with language models
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Retrieval augmentation reduces hallucination in conversation, 2021
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Dynamic llm-agent network: An llm-agent collaboration framework with agent team optimization, 2023
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Can language models use forecasting strategies?, 2024
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URL https://openai.com/o1/
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URL https://openai.com/index/hello-gpt-4o/
Hello GPT-4o
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Forecasting future world events with neural networks, 2022a
A. Zou, T. Xiao, R. Jia, J. Kwon, M. Mazeika, R. Li, D. Song, J. Steinhardt, O. Evans, and D. Hendrycks
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Forecasting future world events with neural networks, 2022b
A. Zou, T. Xiao, R. Jia, J. Kwon, M. Mazeika, R. Li, D. Song, J. Steinhardt, O. Evans, and D. Hendrycks
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COVID-19 pandemic preparation: using simulation for systems-based learning to prepare the largest healthcare workforce and system in Canada
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