Nonparametric late-time expansion history reconstruction and implications for the Hubble tension in light of recent DESI and type Ia supernovae data

Understand

We nonparametrically reconstruct the late-time expansion history in light of the latest Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) measurements from DESI combined with various Type Ia Supernovae (SNeIa) catalogs, using interpolation through piece-wise natural cubic splines, and a reconstruction procedure based on Gaussian Processes (GPs).

• Applied to DESI BAO and PantheonPlus SNeIa data, both methods indicate that deviations from a reference $\Lambda$CDM model in the $z \lesssim 2$ unnormalized expansion rate $E(z)$ are constrained to be $\lesssim 10\%$, but also consistently identify two features in $E(z)$: a bump at $z \sim 0.5$, and a depression at $z \sim 0.9$, which cannot be simultaneously captured by a $w_0w_a$CDM fit.
• These features, which are stable against assumptions regarding spatial curvature, interpolation knots, and GP kernel, disappear if one adopts the older SDSS BAO measurements in place of DESI, and decrease in significance when replacing the PantheonPlus catalog with the Union3 and DESY5 ones.
• We infer $c/(r_dH_0)=29.90 \pm 0.33$, with $r_d$ the sound horizon at baryon drag and $H_0$ the Hubble constant.