LUCIE: A Lightweight Uncoupled ClImate Emulator with long-term stability and physical consistency for O(1000)-member ensembles

Understand

We present a lightweight, easy-to-train, low-resolution, fully data-driven climate emulator, LUCIE, that can be trained on as low as $2$ years of $6$-hourly ERA5 data.

• Unlike most state-of-the-art AI weather models, LUCIE remains stable and physically consistent for $100$ years of autoregressive simulation with $100$ ensemble members.
• Long-term mean climatology from LUCIE's simulation of temperature, wind, precipitation, and humidity matches that of ERA5 data, along with the variability.
• We further demonstrate how well extreme weather events and their return periods can be estimated from a large ensemble of long-term simulations.