Predictions for Electromagnetic Counterparts to Neutron Star Mergers Discovered during LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Observing Runs 4 and 5

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We present a comprehensive, configurable open-source framework for estimating the rate of electromagnetic detection of kilonovae (KNe) associated with gravitational wave detections of binary neutron star (BNS) mergers.

• We simulate the current LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) observing run (O4) using up-to-date sensitivity and up-time values as well as the next observing run (O5) using predicted sensitivities.
• We find the number of discoverable kilonovae during LVK O4 to be ${ 1}_{- 1}^{+ 4}$ or ${ 2 }_{- 2 }^{+ 3 }$, (at 90% confidence) depending on the distribution of NS masses in coalescing binaries, with the number increasing by an order of magnitude during O5 to ${ 19 }_{- 11 }^{+ 24 }$.
• Regardless of mass model, we predict at most five detectable KNe (at 95% confidence) in O4.