A statistical physics and dynamical systems perspective on geophysical extreme events

Understand

Statistical physics and dynamical systems theory are key tools to study high-impact geophysical events such as temperature extremes, cyclones, thunderstorms, geomagnetic storms and many more.

• Despite the intrinsic differences between these events, they all originate as temporary deviations from the typical trajectories of a geophysical system, resulting in well-organised, coherent structures at characteristic spatial and temporal scales.
• While statistical extreme value analysis techniques are capable to provide return times and probabilities of occurrence of certain geophysical events, they are not apt to account for their underlying physics.
• Their focus is to compute the probability of occurrence of events that are large or small with respect to some specific observable (e.g.