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Uncertainty quantification is crucial to decision-making.
Axial attention in multidimensional transformers, 2019
Jonathan Ho, Nal Kalchbrenner, Dirk Weissenborn, and Tim Salimans · 1912
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Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability
Glenn W Brier · 1950
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Atmospheric predictability experiments with a large numerical model
E N Lorenz · 1982
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A method for producing and evaluating probabilistic forecasts from ensemble model integrations
Jeffrey L Anderson · 1996
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The “cubed sphere”: A new method for the solution of partial differential equations in spherical geometry
C Ronchi, R Iacono, and P S Paolucci · 1996
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Evaluation of probabilistic prediction systems
O. Talagrand, R. Vautard, and B Strauss · 1997
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The economic value of ensemble forecasts as a tool for risk assessment: From days to decades
Tim Palmer · 2002
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The economic value of ensemble-based weather forecasts
Yuejian Zhu, Zoltan Toth, Richard Wobus, David Richardson, and Kenneth Mylne · 2002
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Evaluation of probabilistic prediction systems for a scalar variable
G Candille and O Talagrand · 2005
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The prediction of extratropical storm tracks by the ECMWF and NCEP ensemble prediction systems
Lizzie S R Froude, Lennart Bengtsson, and Kevin I Hodges · 2007
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Strictly proper scoring rules, prediction, and estimation
Tilmann Gneiting and Adrian E Raftery · 2007
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Probabilistic forecast calibration using ECMWF and GFS ensemble reforecasts. part I: Two-meter temperatures
Renate Hagedorn, Thomas M Hamill, and Jeffrey S Whitaker · 2008
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Scoring rules for forecast verification
Riccardo Benedetti · 2010
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Uncertainty in weather and climate prediction
Julia Slingo and Tim Palmer · 2011
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An effective configuration of ensemble size and horizontal resolution for the NCEP GEFS
Juhui Ma, Yuejian Zhu, Richard Wobus, and Panxing Wang · 2012
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The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction
Peter Bauer, Alan Thorpe, and Gilbert Brunet · 2015
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Spatial ensemble post-processing with standardized anomalies
Markus Dabernig, Georg J Mayr, Jakob W Messner, and Achim Zeileis · 2017
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Image-to-image translation with conditional adversarial networks
P Isola, J Zhu, T Zhou, and A A Efros · 2017
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The primacy of doubt: Evolution of numerical weather prediction from determinism to probability
Tim Palmer · 2017
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June 2017: The earliest european summer mega-heatwave of reanalysis period
A Sánchez-Benítez, R García-Herrera, D Barriopedro, P M Sousa, and R M Trigo · 2018
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Generating wind power scenarios for probabilistic ramp event prediction using multivariate statistical post-processing
R. P. Worsnop, M. Scheuerer, T. M. Hamill, and J. K. Lundquist · 2018
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Ensemble size: How suboptimal is less than infinity?
Martin Leutbecher · 2019
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The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Looking back (more than) 25 years and projecting forward 25 years
Self-Attentive ensemble transformer: Representing ensemble interactions in neural networks for earth system models
Tobias Sebastian Finn · 2021
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Deep learning for post-processing ensemble weather forecasts
Peter Grönquist, Chengyuan Yao, Tal Ben-Nun, Nikoli Dryden, Peter Dueben, Shigang Li, and Torsten Hoefler · 2021
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A review: Anomaly-based versus full-field-based weather analysis and forecasting
Weihong Qian, Jun Du, and Yang Ai · 2021
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Robust worst-case scenarios from ensemble forecasts
Sebastian Scher, Stephen Jewson, and Gabriele Messori · 2021
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GEFSv12 reforecast dataset for supporting subseasonal and hydrometeorological applications
Hong Guan, Yuejian Zhu, Eric Sinsky, Bing Fu, Wei Li, Xiaqiong Zhou, Xianwu Xue, Dingchen Hou, Jiayi Peng, M M Nageswararao, Vijay Tallapragada, Thomas M Hamill, Jeffrey S Whitaker, Gary Bates, Philip Pegion, Sherrie Frederick, Matthew Rosencrans, and Arun Kumar · 2022
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Tim Palmer · 2019
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Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences
Daniel S Wilks · 2019
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Insights from earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects
C Deser, F Lehner, K B Rodgers, T Ault, T L Delworth, P N DiNezio, A Fiore, C Frankignoul, J C Fyfe, D E Horton, J E Kay, R Knutti, N S Lovenduski, J Marotzke, K A McKinnon, S Minobe, J Randerson, J A Screen, I R Simpson, and M Ting · 2020
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The ERA5 global reanalysis
Hans Hersbach, Bill Bell, Paul Berrisford, Shoji Hirahara, András Horányi, Joaquín Muñoz-Sabater, Julien Nicolas, Carole Peubey, Raluca Radu, Dinand Schepers, Adrian Simmons, Cornel Soci, Saleh Abdalla, Xavier Abellan, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Peter Bechtold, Gionata Biavati, Jean Bidlot, Massimo Bonavita, Giovanna De Chiara, Per Dahlgren, Dick Dee, Michail Diamantakis, Rossana Dragani, Johannes Flemming, Richard Forbes, Manuel Fuentes, Alan Geer, Leo Haimberger, Sean Healy, Robin J Hogan, Elías Hólm, Marta Janisková, Sarah Keeley, Patrick Laloyaux, Philippe Lopez, Cristina Lupu, Gabor Radnoti, Patricia de Rosnay, Iryna Rozum, Freja Vamborg, Sebastien Villaume, and Jean-Noël Thépaut · 2020
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Denoising diffusion probabilistic models
Jonathan Ho, Ajay Jain, and Pieter Abbeel · 2020
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Forecasts of hurricanes using Large-Ensemble outputs
Jonathan Lin, Kerry Emanuel, and Jonathan L Vigh · 2020
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Score-based generative modeling through stochastic differential equations
Yang Song, Jascha Sohl-Dickstein, Diederik P Kingma, Abhishek Kumar, Stefano Ermon, and Ben Poole · 2020
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A generative deep learning approach to stochastic downscaling of precipitation forecasts
Lucy Harris, Andrew T T McRae, Matthew Chantry, Peter D Dueben, and Tim N Palmer · 2022
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Imagen video: High definition video generation with diffusion models
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Elucidating the design space of diffusion-based generative models
Tero Karras, Miika Aittala, Timo Aila, and Samuli Laine · 2022
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High-resolution image synthesis with latent diffusion models
Robin Rombach, Andreas Blattmann, Dominik Lorenz, Patrick Esser, and Björn Ommer · 2022
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Evaluation of machine learning techniques for forecast uncertainty quantification
Maximiliano A Sacco, Juan J Ruiz, Manuel Pulido, and Pierre Tandeo · 2022
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Extreme heatwaves: Surprising lessons from the record warmth
Alexandra Witze · 2022
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The development of the NCEP global ensemble forecast system version 12
Xiaqiong Zhou, Yuejian Zhu, Dingchen Hou, Bing Fu, Wei Li, Hong Guan, Eric Sinsky, Walter Kolczynski, Xianwu Xue, Yan Luo, Jiayi Peng, Bo Yang, Vijay Tallapragada, and Philip Pegion · 2022
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Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations
Emanuele Bevacqua, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Aglaé Jézéquel, Flavio Lehner, Mathieu Vrac, Pascal Yiou, and Jakob Zscheischler · 2023
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Computing the ensemble spread from deterministic weather predictions using conditional generative adversarial networks
Rüdiger Brecht and Alex Bihlo · 2023
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Global extreme heat forecasting using neural weather models
Ignacio Lopez-Gomez, Amy McGovern, Shreya Agrawal, and Jason Hickey · 2023
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Storylines for unprecedented heatwaves based on ensemble boosting
E M Fischer, U Beyerle, L Bloin-Wibe, C Gessner, V Humphrey, F Lehner, A G Pendergrass, S Sippel, J Zeder, and R Knutti · 2041
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