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Conformal inference has played a pivotal role in providing uncertainty quantification for black-box ML prediction algorithms with finite sample guarantees.
Asymptotic theory of certain” goodness of fit” criteria based on stochastic processes
Anderson, T. W. and Darling, D. A. (1952) · 1952
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Asymptotic behavior of the binomial distribution
Prokhorov, Y. V. (1953) · 1953
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Asymptotic minimax character of the sample distribution function and of the classical multinomial estimator
Dvoretzky, A., Kiefer, J., and Wolfowitz, J. (1956) · 1956
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An approximation theorem for the Poisson binomial distribution
Cam, L. L. (1960) · 1960
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Statistical tolerance regions
Guttman, I. (1967) · 1967
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The conditional level of the f—test
Olshen, R. A. (1973) · 1973
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Goodness-of-fit test statistics that dominate the kolmogorov statistics
Berk, R. H. and Jones, D. H. (1979) · 1979
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The asymptotic distribution of the suprema of the standardized empirical processes
Eicker, F. (1979) · 1979
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A theory of the learnable
Valiant, L. G. (1984) · 1984
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Airfoil self-noise and prediction
Brooks, T. F., Pope, D. S., and Marcolini, M. A. (1989) · 1989
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The tight constant in the dvoretzky-kiefer-wolfowitz inequality
Massart, P. (1990) · 1990
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Nonparametric likelihood confidence bands for a distribution function
Owen, A. B. (1995) · 1995
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Machine-learning applications of algorithmic randomness
Vovk, V., Gammerman, A., and Saunders, C. (1999) · 1999
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Random forests
Breiman, L. (2001) · 2001
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Knowing what you know: valid and validated confidence sets in multiclass and multilabel prediction
Cauchois, M., Gupta, S., and Duchi, J. (2020) · 2004
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Quantile regression forests
Meinshausen, N. and Ridgeway, G. (2006) · 2006
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Goodness-of-fit tests via phi-divergences
Jager, L. and Wellner, J. A. (2007) · 2007
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Generalizing simes’ test and hochberg’s stepup procedure
Sarkar, S. K. (2008) · 2008
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Statistical tolerance regions: theory, applications, and computation
Krishnamoorthy, K. and Mathew, T. (2009) · 2009
Cited alongside, same era.
Conditional validity of inductive conformal predictors
Vovk, V. (2012) · 2012
Cited alongside, same era.
Valid post-selection inference
Berk, R., Brown, L., Buja, A., Zhang, K., and Zhao, L. (2013) · 2013
Cited alongside, same era.
Distribution-free prediction sets
Lei, J., Robins, J., and Wasserman, L. (2013) · 2013
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Optimal detection of a jump in the intensity of a poisson process or in a density with likelihood ratio statistics
Rivera, C. and Walther, G. (2013) · 2013
Cited alongside, same era.
Exact post-selection inference for changepoint detection and other generalized lasso problems
Adaptive conformal inference under distribution shift
Gibbs, I. and Candès, E. (2021) · 2021
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Conformal inference of counterfactuals and individual treatment effects
Lei, L. and Candès, E. J. (2021) · 2021
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Conformal prediction interval for dynamic time-series
Xu, C. and Xie, Y. (2021) · 2021
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Conformal prediction beyond exchangeability
Barber, R. F., Candès, E. J., Ramdas, A., and Tibshirani, R. J. (2022) · 2022
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Training-conditional coverage for distribution-free predictive inference
Bian, M. and Barber, R. F. (2022) · 2022
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Hyun, S., G’Sell, M., and Tibshirani, R. J. (2016) · 2016
Cited alongside, same era.
Selecting the number of principal components: Estimation of the true rank of a noisy matrix
Choi, Y., Taylor, J., and Tibshirani, R. (2017) · 2017
Cited alongside, same era.
Fashion-mnist: a novel image dataset for benchmarking machine learning algorithms
Xiao, H., Rasul, K., and Vollgraf, R. (2017) · 2017
Cited alongside, same era.
Distribution-free predictive inference for regression
Lei, J., G’Sell, M., Rinaldo, A., Tibshirani, R. J., and Wasserman, L. (2018) · 2018
Cited alongside, same era.
Uniform convergence rate of the kernel density estimator adaptive to intrinsic volume dimension
Kim, J., Shin, J., Rinaldo, A., and Wasserman, L. (2019) · 2019
Cited alongside, same era.
Conformalized quantile regression
Romano, Y., Patterson, E., and Candès, E. (2019) · 2019
Cited alongside, same era.
Conformal prediction under covariate shift
Tibshirani, R. J., Foygel Barber, R., Candès, E., and Ramdas, A. (2019) · 2019
Cited alongside, same era.
Gibbs, I. and Candès, E. (2022) · 2022
Later among the works it cites.
Conformalized survival analysis with adaptive cutoffs
Gui, Y., Hore, R., Ren, Z., and Barber, R. F. (2022) · 2022
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Selection by prediction with conformal p-values
Jin, Y. and Candès, E. J. (2022) · 2022
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Doubly robust calibration of prediction sets under covariate shift
Yang, Y., Kuchibhotla, A. K., and Tchetgen, E. T. (2022) · 2022
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Adaptive conformal predictions for time series
Zaffran, M., Féron, O., Goude, Y., Josse, J., and Dieuleveut, A. (2022) · 2022
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Testing for outliers with conformal p-values
Bates, S., Candès, E., Lei, L., Romano, Y., and Sesia, M. (2023) · 2023
Closest in time.
Improved online conformal prediction via strongly adaptive online learning
Bhatnagar, A., Wang, H., Xiong, C., and Bai, Y. (2023) · 2023
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Conformalized survival analysis
Candès, E., Lei, L., and Ren, Z. (2023) · 2023
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A new approach to tests and confidence bands for distribution functions
Dümbgen, L. and Wellner, J. A. (2023) · 2023
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Some new inequalities for beta distributions
Henzi, A. and Dümbgen, L. (2023) · 2023
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Nested conformal prediction sets for classification with applications to probation data
Kuchibhotla, A. K. and Berk, R. A. (2023) · 2023
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Conformal prediction for network-assisted regression
Lunde, R., Levina, E., and Zhu, J. (2023) · 2023
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