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Climate projection uncertainty can be partitioned into model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty and internal variability.
Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R.: The Potential to Narrow Uncertainty in Regional Climate Predictions, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90, 1095–1108, 10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1 , publisher: American Meteorological Society Section: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2009
2009
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Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R.: The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change, Climate Dynamics, 37, 407–418, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0810-6 , num Pages: 407-418 Place: Heidelberg, Netherlands Publisher: Springer Nature B.V., 2011
2011
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Deser, C., Knutti, R., Solomon, S., and Phillips, A. S.: Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate, Nature Climate Change, 2, 775–779, 2012
2012
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Gervais, M., Gyakum, J. R., Atallah, E., Tremblay, L. B., and Neale, R. B.: How Well Are the Distribution and Extreme Values of Daily Precipitation over North America Represented in the Community Climate System Model? A Comparison to Reanalysis, Satellite, and Gridded Station Data, Journal of Climate, 27, 5219–5239, 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00320.1 , publisher: American Meteorological Society Section: Journal of Climate, 2014
2014
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Cannon, A. J., Sobie, S. R., and Murdock, T. Q.: Bias Correction of GCM Precipitation by Quantile Mapping: How Well Do Methods Preserve Changes in Quantiles and Extremes?, Journal of Climate, 28, 6938–6959, 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00754.1 , publisher: American Meteorological Society Section: Journal of Climate, 2015
2015
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Kay, J. E., Deser, C., Phillips, A., Mai, A., Hannay, C., Strand, G., Arblaster, J. M., Bates, S. C., Danabasoglu, G., Edwards, J., Holland, M., Kushner, P., Lamarque, J.-F., Lawrence, D., Lindsay, K., Middleton, A., Munoz, E., Neale, R., Oleson, K., Polvani, L., and Vertenstein, M.: The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project: A Community Resource for Studying Climate Change in the Presence of Internal Climate Variability, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 96, 1333–1349, 10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1 , publisher: American Meteorological Society Section: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2015
2015
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Rasmussen, D. J., Meinshausen, M., and Kopp, R. E.: Probability-Weighted Ensembles of U.S. County-Level Climate Projections for Climate Risk Analysis, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 55, 2301–2322, 10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0302.1 , publisher: American Meteorological Society Section: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2016
2016
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Moncrieff, M. W., Liu, C., and Bogenschutz, P.: Simulation, Modeling, and Dynamically Based Parameterization of Organized Tropical Convection for Global Climate Models, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 74, 1363–1380, 10.1175/JAS-D-16-0166.1 , publisher: American Meteorological Society Section: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 2017
2017
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Maraun, D. and Widmann, M.: Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction for Climate Research, Cambridge University Press, URL https://www.ebooks.com/en-us/book/95946434/statistical-downscaling-and-bias-correction-for-climate-research/douglas-maraun/ , 2018
2018
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McKinnon, K. A. and Deser, C.: Internal Variability and Regional Climate Trends in an Observational Large Ensemble, Journal of Climate, 31, 6783–6802, 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0901.1 , publisher: American Meteorological Society Section: Journal of Climate, 2018
2018
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Müller, W. A., Jungclaus, J. H., Mauritsen, T., Baehr, J., Bittner, M., Budich, R., Bunzel, F., Esch, M., Ghosh, R., Haak, H., Ilyina, T., Kleine, T., Kornblueh, L., Li, H., Modali, K., Notz, D., Pohlmann, H., Roeckner, E., Stemmler, I., Tian, F., and Marotzke, J.: A Higher-resolution Version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2-HR), Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 10, 1383–1413, 10.1029/2017MS001217 , _eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2017MS001217, 2018
2018
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Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Li, C., Müller, W. A., and Marotzke, J.: Internal variability in European summer temperatures at 1.5\hspace0.167em°C and 2\hspace0.167em°C of global warming, Environmental Research Letters, 13, 064 026, 10.1088/1748-9326/aaba58 , publisher: IOP Publishing, 2018
2018
Cited alongside, same era.
Yeager, S. G., Danabasoglu, G., Rosenbloom, N. A., Strand, W., Bates, S. C., Meehl, G. A., Karspeck, A. R., Lindsay, K., Long, M. C., Teng, H., and Lovenduski, N. S.: Predicting Near-Term Changes in the Earth System: A Large Ensemble of Initialized Decadal Prediction Simulations Using the Community Earth System Model, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 99, 1867–1886, 10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0098.1 , publisher: American Meteorological Society Section: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2018
2018
Cited alongside, same era.
Maher, N., Lehner, F., and Marotzke, J.: Quantifying the role of internal variability in the temperature we expect to observe in the coming decades, Environmental Research Letters, 15, 054 014, 10.1088/1748-9326/ab7d02 , publisher: IOP Publishing, 2020
2020
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Tapiador, F. J., Navarro, A., Moreno, R., Sánchez, J. L., and García-Ortega, E.: Regional climate models: 30 years of dynamical downscaling, Atmospheric Research, 235, 104 785, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104785 , 2020
2020
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Zelinka, M. D., Myers, T. A., McCoy, D. T., Po-Chedley, S., Caldwell, P. M., Ceppi, P., Klein, S. A., and Taylor, K. E.: Causes of Higher Climate Sensitivity in CMIP6 Models, Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2019GL085 782, 10.1029/2019GL085782 , _eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2019GL085782, 2020
2020
Later among the works it cites.
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Mauritsen, T., Bader, J., Becker, T., Behrens, J., Bittner, M., Brokopf, R., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Crueger, T., Esch, M., Fast, I., Fiedler, S., Fläschner, D., Gayler, V., Giorgetta, M., Goll, D. S., Haak, H., Hagemann, S., Hedemann, C., Hohenegger, C., Ilyina, T., Jahns, T., Jimenéz-de-la Cuesta, D., Jungclaus, J., Kleinen, T., Kloster, S., Kracher, D., Kinne, S., Kleberg, D., Lasslop, G., Kornblueh, L., Marotzke, J., Matei, D., Meraner, K., Mikolajewicz, U., Modali, K., Möbis, B., Müller, W. A., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Nam, C. C. W., Notz, D., Nyawira, S.-S., Paulsen, H., Peters, K., Pincus, R., Pohlmann, H., Pongratz, J., Popp, M., Raddatz, T. J., Rast, S., Redler, R., Reick, C. H., Rohrschneider, T., Schemann, V., Schmidt, H., Schnur, R., Schulzweida, U., Six, K. D., Stein, L., Stemmler, I., Stevens, B., von Storch, J.-S., Tian, F., Voigt, A., Vrese, P., Wieners, K.-H., Wilkenskjeld, S., Winkler, A., and Roeckner, E.: Developments in the MPI-M Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2) and Its Response to Increasing CO2, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 11, 998–1038, 10.1029/2018MS001400 , _eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2018MS001400, 2019
2019
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Swart, N. C., Cole, J. N. S., Kharin, V. V., Lazare, M., Scinocca, J. F., Gillett, N. P., Anstey, J., Arora, V., Christian, J. R., Hanna, S., Jiao, Y., Lee, W. G., Majaess, F., Saenko, O. A., Seiler, C., Seinen, C., Shao, A., Sigmond, M., Solheim, L., von Salzen, K., Yang, D., and Winter, B.: The Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5.0.3), Geoscientific Model Development, 12, 4823–4873, 10.5194/gmd-12-4823-2019 , 2019
2019
Cited alongside, same era.
Tatebe, H., Ogura, T., Nitta, T., Komuro, Y., Ogochi, K., Takemura, T., Sudo, K., Sekiguchi, M., Abe, M., Saito, F., Chikira, M., Watanabe, S., Mori, M., Hirota, N., Kawatani, Y., Mochizuki, T., Yoshimura, K., Takata, K., O’ishi, R., Yamazaki, D., Suzuki, T., Kurogi, M., Kataoka, T., Watanabe, M., and Kimoto, M.: Description and basic evaluation of simulated mean state, internal variability, and climate sensitivity in MIROC6, Geoscientific Model Development, 12, 2727–2765, 10.5194/gmd-12-2727-2019 , publisher: Copernicus GmbH, 2019
2019
Cited alongside, same era.
Zhang, F., Sun, Y. Q., Magnusson, L., Buizza, R., Lin, S.-J., Chen, J.-H., and Emanuel, K.: What Is the Predictability Limit of Midlatitude Weather?, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 76, 1077–1091, 10.1175/JAS-D-18-0269.1 , publisher: American Meteorological Society Section: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 2019
2019
Cited alongside, same era.
Deser, C., Lehner, F., Rodgers, K. B., Ault, T., Delworth, T. L., DiNezio, P. N., Fiore, A., Frankignoul, C., Fyfe, J. C., Horton, D. E., Kay, J. E., Knutti, R., Lovenduski, N. S., Marotzke, J., McKinnon, K. A., Minobe, S., Randerson, J., Screen, J. A., Simpson, I. R., and Ting, M.: Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects, Nature Climate Change, 10, 277–286, 10.1038/s41558-020-0731-2 , number: 4 Publisher: Nature Publishing Group, 2020
2020
Cited alongside, same era.
Jacob, D., Teichmann, C., Sobolowski, S., Katragkou, E., Anders, I., Belda, M., Benestad, R., Boberg, F., Buonomo, E., Cardoso, R. M., Casanueva, A., Christensen, O. B., Christensen, J. H., Coppola, E., De Cruz, L., Davin, E. L., Dobler, A., Domínguez, M., Fealy, R., Fernandez, J., Gaertner, M. A., García-Díez, M., Giorgi, F., Gobiet, A., Goergen, K., Gómez-Navarro, J. J., Alemán, J. J. G., Gutiérrez, C., Gutiérrez, J. M., Güttler, I., Haensler, A., Halenka, T., Jerez, S., Jiménez-Guerrero, P., Jones, R. G., Keuler, K., Kjellström, E., Knist, S., Kotlarski, S., Maraun, D., van Meijgaard, E., Mercogliano, P., Montávez, J. P., Navarra, A., Nikulin, G., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Panitz, H.-J., Pfeifer, S., Piazza, M., Pichelli, E., Pietikäinen, J.-P., Prein, A. F., Preuschmann, S., Rechid, D., Rockel, B., Romera, R., Sánchez, E., Sieck, K., Soares, P. M. M., Somot, S., Srnec, L., Sørland, S. L., Termonia, P., Truhetz, H., Vautard, R., Warrach-Sagi, K., and Wulfmeyer, V.: Regional climate downscaling over Europe: perspectives from the EURO-CORDEX community, Regional Environmental Change, 20, 51, 10.1007/s10113-020-01606-9 , 2020
2020
Cited alongside, same era.
Kendon, E. J., Roberts, N. M., Fosser, G., Martin, G. M., Lock, A. P., Murphy, J. M., Senior, C. A., and Tucker, S. O.: Greater Future U.K. Winter Precipitation Increase in New Convection-Permitting Scenarios, Journal of Climate, 33, 7303–7318, 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0089.1 , publisher: American Meteorological Society Section: Journal of Climate, 2020
2020
Cited alongside, same era.
Lehner, F., Deser, C., Maher, N., Marotzke, J., Fischer, E. M., Brunner, L., Knutti, R., and Hawkins, E.: Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6, Earth System Dynamics, 11, 491–508, 10.5194/esd-11-491-2020 , publisher: Copernicus GmbH, 2020
2020
Cited alongside, same era.
2021
Later among the works it cites.
Martinez-Villalobos, C. and Neelin, J. D.: Climate models capture key features of extreme precipitation probabilities across regions, Environmental Research Letters, 16, 024 017, 10.1088/1748-9326/abd351 , publisher: IOP Publishing, 2021
2021
Later among the works it cites.
McKinnon, K. A. and Deser, C.: The Inherent Uncertainty of Precipitation Variability, Trends, and Extremes due to Internal Variability, with Implications for Western U.S. Water Resources, Journal of Climate, 34, 9605–9622, 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0251.1 , publisher: American Meteorological Society, 2021
2021
Later among the works it cites.
Wood, R. R., Lehner, F., Pendergrass, A. G., and Schlunegger, S.: Changes in precipitation variability across time scales in multiple global climate model large ensembles, Environmental Research Letters, 16, 084 022, 10.1088/1748-9326/ac10dd , publisher: IOP Publishing, 2021
2021
Later among the works it cites.
Döscher, R., Acosta, M., Alessandri, A., Anthoni, P., Arsouze, T., Bergman, T., Bernardello, R., Boussetta, S., Caron, L.-P., Carver, G., Castrillo, M., Catalano, F., Cvijanovic, I., Davini, P., Dekker, E., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Docquier, D., Echevarria, P., Fladrich, U., Fuentes-Franco, R., Gröger, M., v. Hardenberg, J., Hieronymus, J., Karami, M. P., Keskinen, J.-P., Koenigk, T., Makkonen, R., Massonnet, F., Ménégoz, M., Miller, P. A., Moreno-Chamarro, E., Nieradzik, L., van Noije, T., Nolan, P., O’Donnell, D., Ollinaho, P., van den Oord, G., Ortega, P., Prims, O. T., Ramos, A., Reerink, T., Rousset, C., Ruprich-Robert, Y., Le Sager, P., Schmith, T., Schrödner, R., Serva, F., Sicardi, V., Sloth Madsen, M., Smith, B., Tian, T., Tourigny, E., Uotila, P., Vancoppenolle, M., Wang, S., Wårlind, D., Willén, U., Wyser, K., Yang, S., Yepes-Arbós, X., and Zhang, Q.: The EC-Earth3 Earth system model for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6, Geoscientific Model Development, 15, 2973–3020, 10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022 , 2022
2022
Closest in time.
Hausfather, Z., Marvel, K., Schmidt, G. A., Nielsen-Gammon, J. W., and Zelinka, M.: Climate simulations: recognize the ‘hot model’ problem, Nature, 605, 26–29, 10.1038/d41586-022-01192-2 , bandiera_abtest: a Cg_type: Comment Number: 7908 Publisher: Nature Publishing Group Subject_term: Climate change, Policy, Climate sciences, 2022
2022
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Pielke, Jr, R., Burgess, M. G., and Ritchie, J.: Plausible 2005–2050 emissions scenarios project between 2 °C and 3 °C of warming by 2100, Environmental Research Letters, 17, 024 027, 10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ebf , publisher: IOP Publishing, 2022
2022
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