On The Distribution of Bayesian Evidences

Understand

We look at the distribution of the Bayesian evidence for mock realizations of supernova and baryon acoustic oscillation data.

• The ratios of Bayesian evidences of different models are often used to perform model selection.
• The significance of these Bayes factors are then interpreted using scales such as the Jeffreys or Kass \& Raftery scale.
• First, we demonstrate how to use the evidence itself to validate the model, that is to say how well a model fits the data, regardless of how well other models perform.