Understand
Despite their widespread use in practice, the asymptotic properties of Bayesian penalized splines have not been investigated so far.
- We close this gap and study posterior concentration rates for Bayesian penalized splines in a Gaussian nonparametric regression model.
- A key feature of the approach is the hyperprior on the smoothing variance, which allows for adaptive smoothing in practice but complicates the theoretical analysis considerably as it destroys conjugacy and precludes analytic expressions for the posterior moments.
- To derive our theoretical results, we rely on several new concepts including a carefully defined proper version of the partially improper penalized splines prior as well as an innovative spline estimator that projects the observations onto the first basis functions of a Demmler-Reinsch basis.