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2021

Population-informed priors in gravitational-wave astronomy

Moore, Christopher J., Gerosa, Davide

Understand

We describe a Bayesian formalism for analyzing individual gravitational-wave events in light of the rest of an observed population.

This analysis reveals how the idea of a "population-informed prior" arises naturally from a suitable marginalization of an underlying hierarchical Bayesian model which consistently accounts for selection effects.
Our formalism naturally leads to the presence of "leave-one-out" distributions which include subsets of events.
This differs from other approximations, also known as empirical Bayes methods, which effectively double count one or more events.

Built on

E. Hellinger, Journal für die reine und angewandte Mathematik 1909
1909
Earlier work this paper cites.
M. Fishbach, W. M. Farr, and D. E. Holz, ApJ 891
Original
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Earlier work this paper cites.
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Original
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Earlier work this paper cites.
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1985
Earlier work this paper cites.
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Earlier work this paper cites.
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Original
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Earlier work this paper cites.
C. Kimball, C. Talbot, C. P. L. Berry, M. Carney, M. Zevin, E. Thrane, and V. Kalogera, ApJ 900
Original
2005
Earlier work this paper cites.
S. Vitale, D. Gerosa, W. M. Farr, and S. R. Taylor, in Handbook of Gravitational Wave Astronomy , In press (Springer, 2021) arXiv:2007.05579 [astro-ph.IM]
Original
2007
Earlier work this paper cites.
É. Racine, PRD 78
Original
2008
Earlier work this paper cites.

Similar

M. Fishbach and D. E. Holz, ApJ 904
Original
2009
Cited alongside, same era.
R. Abbott et al. (LIGO and Virgo Collaboration), PRX 11
Original
2010
Cited alongside, same era.
R. Abbott et al. (LIGO and Virgo Collaboration), ApJ 913
Original
2010
Cited alongside, same era.
D. W. Hogg, A. D. Myers, and J. Bovy, ApJ 725
Original
2010
Cited alongside, same era.
D. Gerosa, M. Mould, D. Gangardt, P. Schmidt, G. Pratten, and L. M. Thomas, PRD 103
Original
2011
Cited alongside, same era.

Then

T. L. Campante, M. N. Lund, J. S. Kuszlewicz, et al. , ApJ 819
Original
2016
Later among the works it cites.
G. E. Crooks, On Measures of Information and Entropy , v0.7 (2018), threeplusone.com
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Later among the works it cites.
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Later among the works it cites.
I. Mandel, W. M. Farr, and J. R. Gair, MNRAS 486
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2019
Later among the works it cites.
W. Farr, (2019), github.com/farr/Reweighting
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Later among the works it cites.
A. J. Lyttle, G. R. Davies, T. Li, et al. , MNRAS 10.1093/mnras/stab1368 (2021), arXiv:2105.04482 [astro-ph.SR]

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Closest in time.