An analysis of Bayesian estimates for missing higher orders in perturbative calculations

Understand

With current high precision collider data, the reliable estimation of theoretical uncertainties due to missing higher orders (MHOs) in perturbation theory has become a pressing issue for collider phenomenology.

• Traditionally, the size of the MHOs is estimated through scale variation, a simple but ad hoc method without probabilistic interpretation.
• Bayesian approaches provide a compelling alternative to estimate the size of the MHOs, but it is not clear how to interpret the perturbative scales, like the factorisation and renormalisation scales, in a Bayesian framework.
• Recently, it was proposed that the scales can be incorporated as hidden parameters into a Bayesian model.