Causal versions of Maximum Entropy and Principle of Insufficient Reason

Understand

The Principle of Insufficient Reason (PIR) assigns equal probabilities to each alternative of a random experiment whenever there is no reason to prefer one over the other.

• The Maximum Entropy Principle (MaxEnt) generalizes PIR to the case where statistical information like expectations are given.
• It is known that both principles result in paradoxical probability updates for joint distributions of cause and effect.
• This is because constraints on the conditional P(effect|cause) result in changes of P(cause) that assign higher probability to those values of the cause that offer more options for the effect, suggesting "intentional behaviour".