Closer than they appear: A Bayesian perspective on individual-level heterogeneity in risk assessment

Understand

Risk assessment instruments are used across the criminal justice system to estimate the probability of some future behavior given covariates.

• The estimated probabilities are then used in making decisions at the individual level.
• In the past, there has been controversy about whether the probabilities derived from group-level calculations can meaningfully be applied to individuals.
• Using Bayesian hierarchical models applied to a large longitudinal dataset from the court system in the state of Kentucky, we analyze variation in individual-level probabilities of failing to appear for court and the extent to which it is captured by covariates.