Investigating climate tipping points under various emission reduction and carbon capture scenarios with a stochastic climate model

Understand

We study the mitigation of climate tipping point transitions using an energy balance model.

• The evolution of the global mean surface temperature is coupled with the CO2 concentration through the green house effect.
• We model the CO2 concentration with a stochastic delay differential equation (SDDE), accounting for various carbon emission and capture scenarios.
• The resulting coupled system of SDDEs exhibits a tipping point phenomena: if CO2 concentration exceeds a critical threshold (around 478ppm), the temperature experiences an abrupt increase of about six degrees Celsius.