From Goals, Waypoints & Paths To Long Term Human Trajectory Forecasting

Understand

Human trajectory forecasting is an inherently multi-modal problem.

• Uncertainty in future trajectories stems from two sources: (a) sources that are known to the agent but unknown to the model, such as long term goals and (b)sources that are unknown to both the agent & the model, such as intent of other agents & irreducible randomness indecisions.
• We propose to factorize this uncertainty into its epistemic & aleatoric sources.
• We model the epistemic un-certainty through multimodality in long term goals and the aleatoric uncertainty through multimodality in waypoints& paths.