Forecasting timelines of quantum computing

Understand

We consider how to forecast progress in the domain of quantum computing.

• For this purpose we collect a dataset of quantum computer systems to date, scored on their physical qubits and gate error rate, and we define an index combining both metrics, the generalized logical qubit.
• We study the relationship between physical qubits and gate error rate, and tentatively conclude that they are positively correlated (albeit with some room for doubt), indicating a frontier of development that trades-off between them.
• We also apply a log-linear regression on the metrics to provide a tentative upper bound on how much progress can be expected over time.