A Vision for Numerical Weather Prediction in 2030

Understand

In this essay, I outline a personal vision of how I think Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) should evolve in the years leading up to 2030 and hence what it should look like in 2030.

• By NWP I mean initial-value predictions from timescales of hours to seasons ahead.
• Here I want to focus on how NWP can better help save lives from increasingly extreme weather in those parts of the world where society is most vulnerable.
• Whilst we can rightly be proud of many parts of our NWP heritage, its evolution has been influenced by national or institutional politics as well as by underpinning scientific principles.