Probabilistic definition of the perturbative theoretical uncertainty from missing higher orders

Understand

We consider the problem of quantifying the uncertainty on theoretical predictions based on perturbation theory due to missing higher orders.

• The most widely used approach, scale variation, is largely arbitrary and it has no probabilistic foundation, making it not suitable for robust data analysis.
• In 2011, Cacciari and Houdeau proposed a model based on a Bayesian approach to provide a probabilistic definition of the theory uncertainty from missing higher orders.
• In this work, we propose an improved version of the Cacciari-Houdeau model, that overcomes some limitations.