Probabilistic Forecasting of Patient Waiting Times in an Emergency Department

Understand

We study the estimation of the probability distribution of individual patient waiting times in an emergency department (ED).

• Our feature-rich modelling allows for dynamic updating and refinement of waiting time estimates as patient- and ED-specific information (e.g., patient condition, ED congestion levels) is revealed during the waiting process.
• Aspects relating to communicating forecast uncertainty to patients, and implementing this methodology in practice, are also discussed.