Weather-inspired ensemble-based probabilistic prediction of COVID-19

Understand

The objective of this work is to predict the spread of COVID-19 starting from observed data, using a forecast method inspired by probabilistic weather prediction systems operational today.

• Results show that this method works well for China: on day 25 we could have predicted well the outcome for the next 35 days.
• The same method has been applied to Italy and South Korea, and forecasts for the forthcoming weeks are included in this work.
• For Italy, forecasts based on data collected up to today (24 March) indicate that number of observed cases could grow from the current value of 69,176, to between 101k-180k, with a 50% probability of being between 110k-135k.