How many infections of COVID-19 there will be in the "Diamond Princess"-Predicted by a virus transmission model based on the simulation of crowd flow

Understand

Objectives: Simulate the transmission process of COVID-19 in a cruise ship, and then to judge how many infections there will be in the 3711 people in the "Diamond Princess" and analyze measures that could have prevented mass transmission.

• Methods: Based on the crowd flow model, the virus transmission rule between pedestrians is established, to simulate the spread of the virus caused by the close contact during pedestrians' daily activities on the cruise ship.
• Measurements and main results: Three types of simulation scenarios are designed, the Basic scenario focus on the process of virus transmission caused by a virus carrier and the effect of the personal protective measure against the virus.
• The condition that the original virus carriers had disembarked halfway and more and more people strengthen self-protection are considered in the Self-protection scenario, which would comparatively accord with the actual situation of "Diamond princess" cruise.