A Simple Prediction Model for the Development Trend of 2019-nCov Epidemics Based on Medical Observations

Understand

In order to predict the development trend of the 2019 coronavirus (2019-nCov), we established an prediction model to predict the number of diagnoses case in China except Hubei Province.

• From January 25 to January 29, 2020, we optimized 6 prediction models, 5 of them based on the number of medical observations to predicts the peak time of confirmed diagnosis will appear on the period of morning of January 29 from 24:00 to February 2 before 5 o'clock 24:00.
• Then we tracked the data from 24 o'clock on January 29 to 24 o'clock on January 31, and found that the predicted value of the data on the 3rd has a small deviation from the actual value, and the actual value has always remained within the range predicted by the comprehensive prediction model 6.
• Therefore we discloses this finding and will continue to track whether this pattern can be maintained for longer.