Maximal Likely Phase Lines for a Reduced Ice Growth Model

Understand

We study the impact of Brownian noise on transitions between metastable equilibrium states in a stochastic ice sheet model.

• Two methods to accomplish different objectives are employed.
• The maximal likely trajectory by maximizing the probability density function and numerically solving the Fokker-Planck equation shows how the system will evolve over time.
• We have especially studied the maximal likely trajectories starting near the ice-free metastable state, and examined whether they evolve to or near the ice-covered metastable state for certain parameters, in order to gain insights into how the ice sheet formed.