Arterial incident duration prediction using a bi-level framework of extreme gradient-tree boosting

Understand

Predicting traffic incident duration is a major challenge for many traffic centres around the world.

• Most research studies focus on predicting the incident duration on motorways rather than arterial roads, due to a high network complexity and lack of data.
• In this paper we propose a bi-level framework for predicting the accident duration on arterial road networks in Sydney, based on operational requirements of incident clearance target which is less than 45 minutes.
• Using incident baseline information, we first deploy a classification method using various ensemble tree models in order to predict whether a new incident will be cleared in less than 45min or not.