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Conformal prediction is a technique for constructing prediction intervals that attain valid coverage in finite samples, without making distributional assumptions.
Regression quantiles
Roger Koenker and Gilbert Bassett Jr · 1978
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An empirical quantile function for linear models with iid errors
Gilbert Bassett Jr and Roger Koenker · 1982
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Machine-learning applications of algorithmic randomness
Volodya Vovk, Alexander Gammerman, and Craig Saunders · 1999
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Quantile regression via an MM algorithm
David R. Hunter and Kenneth Lange · 2000
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A quantile regression neural network approach to estimating the conditional density of multiperiod returns
James W. Taylor · 2000
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Quantile regression
Roger Koenker and Kevin F. Hallock · 2001
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Greedy function approximation: A gradient boosting machine
Jerome H. Friedman · 2001
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Inductive confidence machines for regression
Harris Papadopoulos, Kostas Proedrou, Volodya Vovk, and Alex Gammerman · 2002
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Algorithmic learning in a random world
Vladimir Vovk, Alex Gammerman, and Glenn Shafer · 2005
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Quantile regression forests
Nicolai Meinshausen · 2006
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Nonparametric quantile estimation
Ichiro Takeuchi, Quoc V. Le, Timothy D. Sears, and Alexander J. Smola · 2006
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Normalized nonconformity measures for regression conformal prediction
Harris Papadopoulos, Alex Gammerman, and Volodya Vovk · 2008
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Inductive conformal prediction: Theory and application to neural networks
Harris Papadopoulos · 2008
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Tennessee’s Student Teacher Achievement Ratio (STAR) project, 2008
C.M. Achilles, Helen Pate Bain, Fred Bellott, Jayne Boyd-Zaharias, Jeremy Finn, John Folger, John Johnston, and Elizabeth Word · 2008
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On-line predictive linear regression
Vladimir Vovk, Ilia Nouretdinov, and Alex Gammerman · 2009
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Quantile and probability curves without crossing
Victor Chernozhukov, Iván Fernández-Val, and Alfred Galichon · 2010
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Regression conformal prediction with nearest neighbours
Harris Papadopoulos, Vladimir Vovk, and Alexander Gammerman · 2011
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Estimating conditional quantiles with the help of the pinball loss
Ingo Steinwart and Andreas Christmann · 2011
Cited alongside, same era.
Reliable prediction intervals with regression neural networks
Harris Papadopoulos and Haris Haralambous · 2011
Cited alongside, same era.
Distribution-free prediction sets
Jing Lei, James Robins, and Larry Wasserman · 2013
Cited alongside, same era.
Distribution-free prediction bands for non-parametric regression
Jing Lei and Larry Wasserman · 2014
Cited alongside, same era.
Regression conformal prediction with random forests
Ulf Johansson, Henrik Boström, Tuve Löfström, and Henrik Linusson · 2014
Cited alongside, same era.
Regression trees for streaming data with local performance guarantees
Ulf Johansson, Cecilia Sönströd, Henrik Linusson, and Henrik Boström · 2014
Cited alongside, same era.
Nonparametric predictive distributions based on conformal prediction
Vladimir Vovk, Jieli Shen, Valery Manokhin, and Min-ge Xie · 2017
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Distribution-free predictive inference for regression
Jing Lei, Max G’Sell, Alessandro Rinaldo, Ryan J. Tibshirani, and Larry Wasserman · 2018
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Discretized conformal prediction for efficient distribution-free inference
Wenyu Chen, Kelli-Jean Chun, and Rina Foygel Barber · 2018
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Frequentist uncertainty estimates for deep learning
Natasa Tagasovska and David Lopez-Paz · 2018
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High-quality prediction intervals for deep learning: A distribution-free, ensembled approach
Tim Pearce, Mohamed Zaki, Alexandra Brintrup, and Andy Neely · 2018
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Signed-error conformal regression
Henrik Linusson, Ulf Johansson, and Tuve Löfström · 2014
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Adam: A method for stochastic optimization
Diederik P. Kingma and Jimmy Ba · 2014
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Dropout: A simple way to prevent neural networks from overfitting
Nitish Srivastava, Geoffrey E. Hinton, Alex Krizhevsky, Ilya Sutskever, and Ruslan Salakhutdinov · 2014
Cited alongside, same era.
Efficient conformal regressors using bagged neural nets
Ulf Johansson, Cecilia Sönströd, and Henrik Linusson · 2015
Cited alongside, same era.
Cross-conformal predictors
Vladimir Vovk · 2015
Cited alongside, same era.
Comment volume prediction using neural networks and decision trees
Kamaljot Singh, Ranjeet Kaur Sandhu, and Dinesh Kumar · 2015
Cited alongside, same era.
Vladimir Vovk, Ivan Petej, Paolo Toccaceli, and Alex Gammerman · 2019
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https://meps.ahrq.gov/mepsweb/data_stats/download_data_files_detail.jsp?cboPufNumber=HC-181
Medical expenditure panel survey, panel 19 · 2019
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https://meps.ahrq.gov/mepsweb/data_stats/download_data_files_detail.jsp?cboPufNumber=HC-181
Medical expenditure panel survey, panel 20 · 2019
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Medical expenditure panel survey, panel 21 · 2019
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https://archive.ics.uci.edu/ml/datasets/BlogFeedback
BlogFeedback data set · 2019
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Bike sharing dataset data set · 2019
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Communities and crime data set · 2019
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Concrete compressive strength data set · 2019
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https://archive.ics.uci.edu/ml/datasets/Facebook+Comment+Volume+Dataset
Facebook comment volume data set · 2019
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Conformal prediction under covariate shift
Rina Foygel Barber, Emmanuel J Candes, Aaditya Ramdas, and Ryan J Tibshirani · 2019
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