Forecasting Transformative AI: An Expert Survey

Understand

Transformative AI technologies have the potential to reshape critical aspects of society in the near future.

• However, in order to properly prepare policy initiatives for the arrival of such technologies accurate forecasts and timelines are necessary.
• A survey was administered to attendees of three AI conferences during the summer of 2018 (ICML, IJCAI and the HLAI conference).
• The survey included questions for estimating AI capabilities over the next decade, questions for forecasting five scenarios of transformative AI and questions concerning the impact of computational resources in AI research.