Joint gravitational wave -- gamma-ray burst detection rates in the aftermath of GW170817

Understand

The observational follow-up campaign of the gravitational wave (GW) multi-messenger event GW170817/GRB170817A has shown that the prompt $\gamma$-rays are consistent with a relativistic structured jet observed from a wide viewing angle $\gtrsim 20$\deg.

• We perform Bayesian inference using the data from early and late EM observations to determine the jet profile of GRB170817A assuming a structured jet model.
• We use the geometric dependence on the burst luminosity to produce a short duration gamma-ray burst (sGRB) efficiency function with redshift, which folded in with binary neutron star detection rate, allows us to estimate the future joint GW/sGRB detection rates for LIGO and Virgo detectors.
• We show that, if the jet structured profile of GRB170817A is a relatively common feature of sGRBs, then there is a realistic probability of another off-axis coincident detection during the third aLIGO/Virgo observing run (O3).