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On a variety of complex decision-making tasks, from doctors prescribing treatment to judges setting bail, machine learning algorithms have been shown to outperform expert human judgments.
Factors determining success or failure on parole
Burgess, E. W. (1928) · 1928
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Clinical vs. statistical prediction
Meehl, P. E. (1954) · 1954
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Smoking and lung cancer: recent evidence and a discussion of some questions
Cornfield, J., Haenszel, W., Hammond, E. C., Lilienfeld, A. M., Shimkin, M. B., and Wynder, E. L. (1959) · 1959
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The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making
Dawes, R. M. (1979) · 1979
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Assessing sensitivity to an unobserved binary covariate in an observational study with binary outcome
Rosenbaum, P. R. and Rubin, D. B. (1983) · 1983
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Testing for qualitative interactions between treatment effects and patient subsets
Gail, M. and Simon, R. (1985) · 1985
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Statistics and causal inference
Holland, P. W. (1986) · 1986
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Clinical versus actuarial judgment
Dawes, R. M., Faust, D., and Meehl, P. E. (1989) · 1989
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Medical heuristics: The silent adjudicators of clinical practice
McDonald, C. J. (1996) · 1996
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The process-performance paradox in expert judgment
Camerer, C. F. and Johnson, E. J. (1997) · 1997
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Psychological models of professional decision making
Dhami, M. K. (2003) · 2003
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Sensitivity to exogeneity assumptions in program evaluation
Imbens, G. W. (2003) · 2003
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Statistical treatment rules for heterogeneous populations
Manski, C. F. (2004) · 2004
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Program evaluation as a decision problem
Dehejia, R. H. (2005) · 2005
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Expert political judgment: How good is it? How can we know?
Tetlock, P. (2005) · 2005
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The effectiveness of simple decision heuristics: Forecasting commercial success for early-stage ventures
Åstebro, T. and Elhedhli, S. (2006) · 2006
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Bayesian sensitivity analysis for unmeasured confounding in observational studies
McCandless, L. C., Gustafson, P., and Levy, A. (2007) · 2007
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Instant customer base analysis: Managerial heuristics often get it right
Wübben, M. and Wangenheim, F. V. (2008) · 2008
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The appd randomized controlled trial in low risk supervision: The effects on low risk supervision on rearrest
Ahlman, L. C. and Kurtz, E. M. (2009) · 2009
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Forecasting murder within a population of probationers and parolees: a high stakes application of statistical learning
Using decision lists to construct interpretable and parsimonious treatment regimes
Zhang, Y., Laber, E. B., Tsiatis, A., and Davidian, M. (2015) · 2015
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Big data’s disparate impact
Barocas, S. and Selbst, A. D. (2016) · 2016
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Assessing sensitivity to unmeasured confounding using a simulated potential confounder
Carnegie, N. B., Harada, M., and Hill, J. L. (2016) · 2016
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Stan: A probabilistic programming language
Carpenter, B., Gelman, A., Hoffman, M., Lee, D., Goodrich, B., Betancourt, M., Brubaker, M. A., Guo, J., Li, P., and Riddell, A. (2016) · 2016
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A flexible, interpretable framework for assessing sensitivity to unmeasured confounding
Dorie, V., Harada, M., Carnegie, N. B., and Hill, J. (2016) · 2016
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Berk, R., Sherman, L., Barnes, G., Kurtz, E., and Ahlman, L. (2009) · 2009
Cited alongside, same era.
Bayesian aspects of treatment choice
Chamberlain, G. (2011) · 2011
Cited alongside, same era.
Extraneous factors in judicial decisions
Danziger, S., Levav, J., and Avnaim-Pesso, L. (2011) · 2011
Cited alongside, same era.
Doubly robust policy evaluation and learning
Dudík, M., Langford, J., and Li, L. (2011) · 2011
Cited alongside, same era.
Criminal justice forecasts of risk: a machine learning approach
Berk, R. (2012) · 2012
Cited alongside, same era.
Bayesian nonparametric modeling for causal inference
Hill, J. L. (2012) · 2012
Cited alongside, same era.
A robust method for estimating optimal treatment regimes
Zhang, B., Tsiatis, A. A., Laber, E. B., and Davidian, M. (2012) · 2012
Cited alongside, same era.
Athey, S. and Wager, S. (2017) · 2017
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Algorithmic decision making and the cost of fairness
Corbett-Davies, S., Pierson, E., Feller, A., Goel, S., and Huq, A. (2017) · 2017
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Simple rules for complex decisions
Jung, J., Concannon, C., Shroff, R., Goel, S., and Goldstein, D. G. (2017) · 2017
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Sources of power: How people make decisions
Klein, G. A. (2017) · 2017
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Human decisions and machine predictions
Kleinberg, J., Lakkaraju, H., Leskovec, J., Ludwig, J., and Mullainathan, S. (2017) · 2017
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A comparison of bayesian and monte carlo sensitivity analysis for unmeasured confounding
McCandless, L. C. and Gustafson, P. (2017) · 2017
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Interpretable classification models for recidivism prediction
Zeng, J., Ustun, B., and Rudin, C. (2017) · 2017
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A case study of algorithm-assisted decision making in child maltreatment hotline screening decisions
Chouldechova, A., Benavides-Prado, D., Fialko, O., and Vaithianathan, R. (2018) · 2018
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