The decisive future of inflation

Understand

How much more will we learn about single-field inflationary models in the future? We address this question in the context of Bayesian design and information theory.

• We develop a novel method to compute the expected utility of deciding between models and apply it to a set of futuristic measurements.
• This necessarily requires one to evaluate the Bayesian evidence many thousands of times over, which is numerically challenging.
• We show how this can be done using a number of simplifying assumptions and discuss their validity.