A Nonparametric Delayed Feedback Model for Conversion Rate Prediction

Understand

Predicting conversion rates (CVRs) in display advertising (e.g., predicting the proportion of users who purchase an item (i.e., a conversion) after its corresponding ad is clicked) is important when measuring the effects of ads shown to users and to understanding the interests of the users.

• There is generally a time delay (i.e., so-called {\it delayed feedback}) between the ad click and conversion.
• Owing to the delayed feedback, samples that are converted after an observation period may be treated as negative.
• To overcome this drawback, CVR prediction assuming that the time delay follows an exponential distribution has been proposed.