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2017

Lens covariance effects on likelihood analyses of CMB power spectra

Motloch, Pavel, Hu, Wayne

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Non-Gaussian correlations induced in CMB power spectra by gravitational lensing must be included in likelihood analyses for future CMB experiments.

We present a simple but accurate likelihood model which includes these correlations and use it for Markov Chain Monte Carlo parameter estimation from simulated lensed CMB maps in the context of $\Lambda$CDM and extensions which include the sum of neutrino masses or the dark energy equation of state $w$.
If lensing-induced covariance is not taken into account for a CMB-S4 type experiment, the errors for one combination of parameters in each case would be underestimated by more then a factor of two and lower limits on $w$ could be misestimated substantially.
The frequency of falsely ruling out the true model or finding tension with other data sets would also substantially increase.

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