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2017

Runaway Feedback Loops in Predictive Policing

Ensign, Danielle, Friedler, Sorelle A., Neville, Scott et al.

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Predictive policing systems are increasingly used to determine how to allocate police across a city in order to best prevent crime.

Discovered crime data (e.g., arrest counts) are used to help update the model, and the process is repeated.
Such systems have been empirically shown to be susceptible to runaway feedback loops, where police are repeatedly sent back to the same neighborhoods regardless of the true crime rate.
In response, we develop a mathematical model of predictive policing that proves why this feedback loop occurs, show empirically that this model exhibits such problems, and demonstrate how to change the inputs to a predictive policing system (in a black-box manner) so the runaway feedback loop does not occur, allowing the true crime rate to be learned.

Runaway Feedback Loops in Predictive Policing · Around

Built on

A generalization of sampling without replacement from a finite universe
Daniel G Horvitz and Donovan J Thompson · 1952
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Predicting how people play games: Reinforcement learning in experimental games with unique, mixed strategy equilibria
Ido Erev and Alvin E Roth · 1998
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A survey of random processes with reinforcement
Robin Pemantle · 2007
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Generalized pólya urns via stochastic approximation
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