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It is conventionally believed that if a ball of matter of mass $M$ has a radius close to $2GM$ then it must collapse to a black hole.
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S. W. Hawking, Commun. Math. Phys. 43
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E. Witten, Nucl. Phys. B 195
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S. D. Mathur, Fortsch. Phys. 53
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G. W. Gibbons and N. P. Warner, Class. Quant. Grav. 31
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Later among the works it cites.
A. Masoumi and S. D. Mathur, Phys. Rev. D 90
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Later among the works it cites.
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