Revisiting the Lyman Continuum Escape Crisis: Predictions for z > 6 from Local Galaxies

Understand

The intrinsic escape fraction of ionizing Lyman continuum photons ($f_{esc}$) is crucial to understand whether galaxies are capable of reionizing the neutral hydrogen in the early universe at z>6.

• Unfortunately, it is not possible to access $f_{esc}$ at z>4 with direct observations and the handful of measurements from low redshift galaxies consistently find $f_{esc}$ < 10%, while at least $f_{esc}$ ~ 10% is necessary for galaxies dominate reionization.
• Here, we present the first empirical prediction of $f_{esc}$ at z>6 by combining the (sparsely populated) relation between [OIII]/[OII] and $f_{esc}$ with the redshift evolution of [OIII]/[OII] as predicted from local high-z analogs selected by their H$\alpha$ equivalent-width.
• We find $f_{esc}$ = $5.7_{-3.3}^{+8.3}$% at z=6 and $f_{esc}$ = $10.4_{-6.3}^{+15.5}$% at z=9 for galaxies with log(M/M$_{sun}$) ~ 9.0 (errors given as 1$\sigma$).