Compact pairwise models for epidemics with multiple infectious stages on degree heterogeneous and clustered networks

Understand

This paper presents a compact pairwise model that describes the spread of multi-stage epidemics on networks.

• The multi-stage model corresponds to a gamma-distributed infectious period which interpolates between the classical Markovian models with exponentially distributed infectious period and epidemics with a constant infectious period.
• We show how the compact approach leads to a system of equations whose size is independent of the range of node degrees, thus significantly reducing the complexity of the model.
• Network clustering is incorporated into the model to provide a more accurate representation of realistic contact networks, and the accuracy of proposed closures is analysed for different levels of clustering and number of infection stages.