Bayesian techniques for comparing time-dependent GRMHD simulations to variable Event Horizon Telescope observations

Understand

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) is a millimeter-wavelength, very-long-baseline interferometry (VLBI) experiment that is capable of observing black holes with horizon-scale resolution.

• Early observations have revealed variable horizon-scale emission in the Galactic Center black hole, Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*).
• Comparing such observations to time-dependent general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations requires statistical tools that explicitly consider the variability in both the data and the models.
• We develop here a Bayesian method to compare time-resolved simulation images to variable VLBI data, in order to infer model parameters and perform model comparisons.