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We discuss the traditional criterion for discovery in Particle Physics of requiring a significance corresponding to at least 5 sigma; and whether a more nuanced approach might be better.
H. Jeffreys, ‘Theory of Probability’, Oxford University Press (1939); D. V. Lindley, ‘A Statistical Paradox’, Biometrika 44
1957
Earlier work this paper cites.
R. Cousins, ‘Can high energy physicists learn something useful from the Jeffreys-Lindley paradox?’, Banff Workshop (2010), http://people.stat.sfu.ca/~lockhart/richard/banff2010/cousins.pdf
2010
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